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Making India an Upper Middle Income Country by 2030


Indian economy is expected to be increase from $2.85 trillion today to $ 6.5-7 trillion by 2030 and making us the third or fourth largest economy in world. However our Per Capita Income is projected to be just around $4,000.  While we will be making good progress in reducing families living in low income group by 65%(70m) and but still 49%(189m) that is every second family in India will be living in low income or low middle income category and will have a poor quality of life. We need to bend this curve and make India a upper middle income country by 2030 so that majority of people of our country are able to lead a better quality of life.

 

From one in seven family(15%) in low income group we should aim to have one in twenty family(5%) while the remaining moving to the next level by 2030. Similarly from having every third family(34%) in low middle income group we should aim to have  one in seven family(15%) while rest moving to the next level by 2030. This will mean only 20% of families in low income and low middle income group and while 80% families will be in upper middle income group and above.

Source Times of India

Are we setting a goal beyond our reach or is it difficult but achievable. There are three strong reasons which suggest that this it is achievable.  Firstly, states like Tamilnadu or high growth urban pockets will be reaching the 2030 scenario much before and with the right interventions in place should be able to move three out of four families in upper middle income group. Secondly there is an broad consensus among experts and practitioners on the challenges India faces and reforms and new policy directions in both economic and social sectors needed to help India achieve higher and inclusive growth and better human development. These include but are not limited to: better safety nets primarily focused in very poor rural pockets and urban ultra-poor, targeted programs like UBI/investment support aimed at poor and low income groups, universal health care coverage; improving education outcomes, systematic measures to reducing fiscal deficit, creating a better business environment , agriculture reforms, banking reforms, power sector reforms, labour law reforms and holistic development of cities. Third and most importantly, a young and aspirational India with a median age of under 30 –  impatient for progress, better quality of life and striving to move to next income group as quickly as possible. However as always there is a critical missing piece, which is a decisive political mandate by the people of India to transform India into a upper middle income country. A decisive mandate given by people to elected representatives to usher in set of bold reforms and new policy directions that builds on the progress but also is able to chart out new path for meeting the end goal. Of course, the reforms will need to be supported by agile and quality execution on the ground which includes adoption of impactful and innovative delivery models. For effective execution, the delivery models will need to leverage the strengths of government, private sector, social sector and foster collaborations, build or augment capacity while at the same time work within the limitations and constraints of each entity.

Are we setting a goal beyond our reach or is it difficult but achievable. There are three strong reasons which suggest that this it is achievable.  Firstly, states like Tamilnadu or high growth urban pockets will be reaching the 2030 scenario much before and with the right interventions in place should be able to move three out of four families in upper middle income group. Secondly there is an broad consensus among experts and practitioners on the challenges India faces and reforms and new policy directions in both economic and social sectors needed to help India achieve higher and inclusive growth and better human development. These include but are not limited to: better safety nets primarily focused in very poor rural pockets and urban ultra-poor, targeted programs like UBI/investment support aimed at poor and low income groups, universal health care coverage; improving education outcomes, systematic measures to reducing fiscal deficit, creating a better business environment , agriculture reforms, banking reforms, power sector reforms, labour law reforms and holistic development of cities. Third and most importantly, a young and aspirational India with a median age of under 30 –  impatient for progress, better quality of life and striving to move to next income group as quickly as possible. However as always there is a critical missing piece, which is a decisive political mandate by the people of India to transform India into a upper middle income country. A decisive mandate given by people to elected representatives to usher in set of bold reforms and new policy directions that builds on the progress but also is able to chart out new path for meeting the end goal. Of course, the reforms will need to be supported by agile and quality execution on the ground which includes adoption of impactful and innovative delivery models. For effective execution, the delivery models will need to leverage the strengths of government, private sector, social sector and foster collaborations, build or augment capacity while at the same time work within the limitations and constraints of each entity.

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